Free Republic

President Biden is facing an American public that trusts his top political rival far more on inflation and economic matters, issues that are likely to loom large in voters’ minds at the ballot booth in November. A poll released last week from the Cook Political Report, conducted with Democratic and Republican strategy firms, showed that likely voters across seven “swing states” overwhelmingly disapprove of the job Biden is doing on the economy.

Contrary to what many political pundits, including this one, thought would happen as soon as Donald Trump became the presumptive GOP nominee, the former president has maintained a slim but steady polling lead over President Joe Biden. As of today, the RCP Average has Trump with a 1.1% overall advantage, with Quinnipiac being the only May poll showing Biden leading, albeit by a mere 1%. By contrast, Biden enjoyed a 5.6% advantage this time in 2020, an election in which Trump never actually took the average polling lead.Still, are there signs that Trump's lead might be softer than we think?...

It seems Joe Biden didn’t like what recent polls were telling him. So he and his staff started claiming they’re fake. Unfortunately for Biden sycophants, the most recent Rasmussen Poll had Trump up by a gob-smacking +12 in a five-way race. Since it is tough to put a positive spin on something like that, and since there is no such thing as a silent Biden voter, this poll had to be wrong, too. One of the most interesting things about this particular poll is that it is included in the Real Clear Politics polling average but not in the FiveThirtyEight...

So many reasons to be optimistic, but of course, caution is in order. The 2024 presidential election is five months away. Corporate media is calling it a “tight race.” It probably is, as have been most recent presidential elections, but what do the polls say? Remember this caveat about polls: They are a snapshot in time, reflecting the views of a tiny fraction of a percent of the population, registered or likely voters, and are fluid depending on the news and issues of the day. Current events rapidly change, as do voter sentients, and voter preferences may shift over the...

Many Americans do not plan to enjoy a summer vacation in President Joe Biden’s America, a Fox News poll found in May, underscoring the economy as the number one 2024 issue for voters. The Fox News poll found: Of the 55 percent who are not taking a summer vacation, 73 percent do not have enough money to do so. Seventy-two percent said higher prices impact their summer plans. Fifteen percent do not have time and must remain focused on the daily grind. The last time a pollster asked Americans this question, in 2010, of those who were not going on...

Might the former President pick the wrong Florida man for his ticket? Florida’s senior Senator may not offer former President Donald Trump as big a boost as some other potential running mates might … including the current Governor of Florida. That’s the takeaway from the new Harvard-Harris Poll, which finds voters want Gov. Ron DeSantis and not Marco Rubio on the ticket. DeSantis leads a host of potential picks with 12% top-choice support among the electorate, including 23% of Republicans, 7% of no-party voters, and 4% of Democrats. Rubio has 4% support but just 3% among Republicans, 4% among no-party...

The Biden administration ordered a ban on 2024 election betting markets, which often show former President Donald Trump winning in November and President Joe Biden remaining his party’s nominee. Betting markets often provide different insights than election polling that established media outlets perform and are often useful to academics and journalists. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission proposed a rule on May 10 to permanently ban betting on election commercial prediction markets in the United States, the New York Times’ Jeff Sommer recently reported, even as sports gambling became largely deregulated, soaring in popularity: Rostin Behnam, the chairman of the C.F.T.C.,...

[T]he latest NHJournal/Praecones Analytica poll finds Biden tied with Trump in New Hampshire ...

It’s the battleground-state polling that should be most alarming to Team Biden for the simple reason that he is consistently trailing in three Sun Belt states (Arizona, Georgia, Nevada) that were crucial to his 2020 win. If they (along with another competitive southern state, North Carolina) appear out of reach for the incumbent later in the campaign season, his path to victory may depend on a sweep in three highly competitive Rust Belt states: Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

A new poll revealed young registered voters trust former President Donald Trump over President Joe Biden when it comes to reducing prices and securing the border, two defining issues of the 2024 general election. The polling released on Thursday by Democratic-aligned public opinion research group Blueprint found most young voters trust Biden over Trump to handle most things, except for two concerns that “may be the defining issues of the 2024 election.” The poll found 52% trust Trump more when it comes to lowering prices and that 53% trust Trump more to secure the border, statistics that gave pollsters pause....

Multiple polls are showing Joe Biden sinking into the abyss. Biden has been in denial about those polls for some time. President Biden is not convinced by recent polls that show he is facing a difficult election fight against former President Trump in November, and neither are many in his orbit.Some Democrats think Biden's in "denial" about his difficult posture and not taking his position seriously enough, according to Axios."The polling data has been wrong all along. How many — you guys do a poll at CNN," Biden told CNN last week. "How many folks you have to call to...

As we've noted in the past, Mika Brzezinski has expressed concerns over the fragile psyche of her husband and co-host Joe Scarborough, at one point ordering him to take an extended break from the show. Mika might be inclined to give Joe another long time-out after his disturbed and disturbing performance on Wednesday's Morning Joe. Scarborough absolutely freaked out [see screencap and Mika's stone-faced reaction] over a New York Times/Siena poll showing Trump leading in five out of six swing states. Scarborough was dead serious when he accused the Times of rigging the polls against Biden in order to write...

Former President Donald Trump is leading President Joe Biden in five of six key battleground states new polling found, as the Democrat has lost support among the nonwhite and young voters who formed his winning coalition four years ago. On Monday, The New York Times, Siena College and The Philadelphia Inquirer released the latest series of battleground polls, with the numbers largely unchanged since the last set of polls were published in November. Biden didn't get a boost from the stock market climbing 25 percent or from ads his campaign has run in the six key states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan,...

An MSNBC panel grew bewildered at a poll indicating independent voters find President Joe Biden to be a bigger threat to democracy than former President Donald Trump. A PBS Newshour/NPR/Marist poll found 53% of independents believe Biden’s second term will “weaken America,” while 42% believed Trump would further harm democracy. “I find it shocking, honestly,” MSNBC political analyst Susan Del Percio said. “I can’t make sense of that number. I wish I could. I wish I could have some really great insight to it, but I don’t know if it’s an outlier or not, because the other numbers of independents...

1 in 5 Democrats may not vote for Biden's re-election. New polling from the Florida Chamber of Commerce suggests that Democrats are guilty of wishful thinking when they say Florida’s too close to call in November. To the contrary, former President Donald Trump is set up for a decisive win in the Sunshine State, according to a phone survey of 609 registered voters: 223 Democrats, 256 Republicans and 130 others. In a two-man race, Trump leads Joe Biden 51% to 42%, with just 79% of registered Democrats saying they’ll vote for him. Trump, despite his legal woes and controversies during...

President Donald Trump is leading President Biden in five critical, toss-up swing states — all of which Biden had won in 2020, a new set of polls revealed. Surveys by The New York Times, Siena College and The Philadelphia Inquirer found that Trump was more popular than Biden among voters in Michigan, Arizona, Nevada, Georgia and Pennsylvania, while Biden led among voters in only one battleground state, Wisconsin. [cut] Many of the voters polled even admitted that even while they dislike Trump, he would be the candidate to drive much-needed change. Trump and Biden are currently tied among 18 to...

Former President Donald Trump (R) leads over President Joe Biden (D) by 4 percentage points – 49% to 45% ...

A recent analysis published by the left-leaning Brookings Institution -- which highlights Pew data -- demonstrates significant erosion within Joe Biden's 2020 victory coalition, across multiple key demographics. It cites "major shifts away from Biden have occurred among Black, Hispanic, and Asian voters. Surprisingly, Trump appears to have gained more ground among college-educated Black and Hispanic voters than with less educated members of these groups. Equally surprising: Up to now, Trump has increased his support more among women than men." All survey data should be considered with a large grain of salt with half a year still remaining before the...

Excluding people who say they wouldn't vote, Trump has 46% support, Biden 44%, in this national survey of more than 2,200 adults. (Nearly all the rest say they'd pick someone else.) Among registered voters, it's Biden 46%, Trump 45%. Among likely voters, it's Biden 49%, Trump 45%

An April Kaplan Strategies poll has former President Donald Trump with a big lead over President Joe Biden in Michigan. The poll has Trump leading Biden 51%-36% in a state that will be key to determining who wins the 2024 presidential election. Biden beat Trump in the Great Lakes State by 2.8 points in 2020. In 2016, Trump defeated Hillary Clinton by just .23 points, 10,000 votes, the first time Michigan voted Republican since 1988. Both sides have been campaigning aggressively in Michigan, with Trump recently hosting a rally in Freeland. Third-party candidate Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. will also be...